Weekly Nuggets #32
This thirty-second edition of the Weekly Nuggets increasingly reflects a world economy undergoing profound structural realignment.
What once appeared to be temporary disruptions caused by war, supply chain fragmentation, and monetary tightening is now beginning to resemble the emergence of a fundamentally new macroeconomic regime, one defined by industrial policy, strategic competition, and persistent resource constraints.
The material gathered this week highlights how governments, investors, and corporations are adapting to this transition in real time. From the Trump administration’s push toward reindustrialization and protectionism to China’s efforts to strengthen energy resilience amid the Persian Gulf crisis, economic policy is becoming ever more intertwined with national security considerations. Simultaneously, the AI boom continues to sustain investment, productivity growth, and financial market optimism even as elevated energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on the global outlook.
In parallel, gold is increasingly re-emerging as a symbol of monetary and geopolitical transition. As several pieces featured this week suggest, mounting fiscal imbalances, persistent inflationary pressures, and growing distrust toward fiat systems are contributing to a renewed interest in hard assets and sound money.
As always, the Weekly Nuggets does not seek to predict exact outcomes, but rather to identify the deeper forces reshaping the global macro environment. This week suggests that the global economy is in the early stages of a far more enduring transformation.
Tweets/Notes/Posts
1/ So, if the demand for gold doubles, the price doubles. Simple, yet brilliant.
2/ Looking at the LBMA vaults’ gold holdings, a big chunk of the gold must be going to London as well… or to Switzerland to be refitted first.
3/ As the last century and a quarter has shown, the perceived relative importance of the mining industry changes very slowly, following the long-term economic cycles. Surely, a secular bull market is in the cards… if it hasn’t already begun.
4/ Turkey spoiled the party. The combined net purchases of gold by central banks in March were -30t. If we exclude Turkey from the calculation, central banks would have collectively bought, on net, 30t.
5/ Isn’t it funny? Gold, which is demonstrably a hedge against inflation, has performed poorly recently because inflation expectations have jumped.
6/ But then again, cost-push inflation is a different animal than proper (monetary) inflation. While the latter raises all prices of goods and assets, the former just shifts the relative prices, elevating mostly the prices of inelastic goods.
7/ Seemingly, the countries that had the highest retail prices at the pump, before the oil shock, have witnessed the lowest increases resulting from it.
8/ Drill, baby, drill! Gold may currently be the largest exporting good from the US, but oil is bound to top the ranking.
9/ So far, the big US tech companies have been reigning supreme over the rest of the stock market. However, can the oil and gas producers challenge their dominance?
10/ Either way, the US equities are hardly going to derail from their unrelenting rally.
Cartoons/Memes
1/ Do investors even care if central banks maintain interest rates at the “restrictive” level that they currently are? Apparently, AI has fixed this.
2/ And with AI making everything in the future, humans will have to keep themselves busy. Why not gamble away your Universal Basic Income stipends in the stock market?
Podcasts/Interviews/Presentations
1/ The New Macro Playbook ft Rebecca Patterson | Unearthed
https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/05/unearthed-new-macro-playbook-ft-rebecca-patterson
Commentary
In the latest episode of the World Gold Council’s Unearthed podcast, Joe Cavatoni and John Reade speak with Rebecca Patterson about the increasingly volatile global macroeconomic landscape. The discussion focuses on the geopolitical turmoil that has defined 2026, from the US intervention in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro to the conflict in the Persian Gulf, which triggered a severe energy crisis following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the blockade of the Gulf of Oman.
To begin with, Patterson remarks that the relentless flow of developments has kept investors constantly on edge, joking that the Trump administration has “ruined weekends” by announcing major decisions outside trading hours.
The episode also explores the profound shift in the global economy since the pandemic. Patterson argues that the era of ZIRP and NIRP is over, replaced by structurally higher inflation and growing “whiffs of stagflation.” Nevertheless, despite elevated energy prices weighing on activity, economic growth has remained surprisingly resilient, largely driven by the AI boom and its impact on investment and productivity.
Finally, the conversation examines how expectations for interest rate cuts have rapidly faded as central banks struggle to balance persistent inflation against slowing growth.
2/ The Secret History of Gold ‒ Tom Woods Show #2758 | TomWoodsTV
Commentary
In this new episode of The Tom Woods Show, Dominic Frisby joins Tom Woods to discuss the central themes of his new book, The Secret History of Gold: Myth, Money, Politics, and Power. The conversation explores gold not merely as a commodity or financial asset, but as a force deeply intertwined with the rise of civilization itself. In short, Frisby argues that gold has shaped empires, inspired exploration, motivated human action, and served for centuries as “wealth in its purest, most distilled form.”
Fundamentally, the historical role of gold as sound money and the societal consequences of abandoning it are discussed. Frisby contends that the transition from gold-backed monetary systems to fiat currencies inherently altered the relationship between governments, money, and citizens, enabling chronic inflation, debt expansion, and financial instability.
The episode also highlights the remarkable historical connections uncovered in the book, linking Isaac Newton, the Brazilian gold rush, the rise of the nineteenth-century gold standard, the collapse of bimetallism, and even The Wizard of Oz. Altogether, it is a fascinating journey through the hidden monetary history that helped shape the modern world.
Quotes
1/ “AI is changing how we work...The pace of what’s possible with a small, focused team has changed dramatically...We are adjusting early and deliberately to rebuild Coinbase to be lean, fast, and AI-native.” – Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase.
2/ “This is why I quit the Reagan Administration in July 1985. The supply-side charlatans were wrong then, and have been consistently, dangerously and risibly wrong ever since. You do not grow your way out of massive debt......you budget cut your way out and let growth take care of itself.” – David Stockman.
3/ “Fed Independence is a Myth. A bedtime story they tell people to make them think someone is fighting for the little guy against the big bad Government. Powell’s ego has him fighting dragons.” – Brent Johnson.
Charts
1/ Visibly, the action in central bank gold movements has centered around Eastern Europe and Central Asia so far in 2026.
2/ Ever wondered how the international monetary system is devised? Here’s a detailed depiction.
3/ As argued above, the AI boom has obviously delighted investors, hardly failing to fulfil the high expectations.
Articles/News
1/ How Is the Iran War Impacting China’s Economy?
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-economic-impacts-iran-war/
Commentary
This new piece from the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) examines how China has managed to weather the economic shockwaves generated by the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf and the resulting global energy crisis. Despite being the world’s largest energy importer and heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, China has demonstrated a surprising degree of resilience thanks to its large strategic reserves, diversified energy supply chains, and growing domestic renewable energy capacity.
The authors also highlight how the disruption of global trade routes and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have accelerated Beijing’s long-term push toward greater energy security and technological self-sufficiency. While higher transport and input costs are pressuring manufacturers and weighing on global demand, China’s economy has continued to benefit from strong exports, AI-driven industrial investment, and the rapid expansion of clean energy industries.
Ultimately, the analysis suggests that although the Iran war has exposed China’s vulnerabilities to external shocks, it may also reinforce structural trends already underway. All in all, this is a very thorough and informative piece that deserves your attention.
2/ What the U.S. Trade Data Say About Trump’s Reindustrialization
Commentary
In this recent article for RealClearMarkets, Peter Navarro lays out the intellectual and political rationale behind the Trump administration’s protectionist economic agenda and its broader strategy of “reindustrializing” the United States. Navarro argues that for decades the American economy was built around cheap imports, financialization, outsourcing, and chronic trade deficits that hollowed out domestic manufacturing and weakened industrial capacity.
According to Navarro, the White House is attempting to reverse that model through tariffs, industrial policy, tax incentives, deregulation, and an “America First” trade strategy designed to rebuild domestic production, strengthen supply chains, and reduce dependence on foreign manufacturing, particularly from China. Naturally, he points to record exports, rising business investment, and increased imports of capital goods as evidence that the US is entering what he describes as an “investment phase” of industrial revival.
More broadly, the article reflects the administration’s conviction that economic efficiency and free trade should no longer take precedence over national security, industrial resilience, and strategic competition. In Navarro’s view, tariffs are not merely trade tools, but instruments for reshaping the structure of the American economy itself. I wonder if the Mar-a-Lago Accord is effectively in the making.